Luca Niculescu
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 96%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved1 Jan 2045
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 19 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 96% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luca Niculescu becomes the first new Prime Minister of Romania after the question is issued. It resolves to No if someone else holds that position first or if he never takes office. Readers often mistake the date of the news headline for the start of the countdown, but only appointments occurring after issuance count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%