Keith Sonderling
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$66k
Liquidity$66k
Resolved20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 98% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Keith Sonderling becomes the first new Secretary of Labor before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the confirmation date for the start date; the clock begins only when he actually assumes office.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%