8+ wins
Why it moved: −3 points at 01:14 UTC, after www.espn.com: Sayin-Smith connection leads No. 5 Ohio State past No. 14 Iowa — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 77% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 76% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 78% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Iowa college football team secures at least eight wins during the 2026 regular season. It resolves to No if the team finishes that season with fewer than eight wins. Readers often mistake the deadline, assuming it depends on playoff results rather than just the regular season record.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 75%
- No 25%