Kyle Larson
The market favoured Yes at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +12 points at 22:53 UTC, after SI Feed: Larson Scores Maximum Points In Dominant Cup Series Win at Kansas — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 74% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Kyle Larson finishes in the top 10 of the main race at the 2026 NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400. The deadline is the conclusion of that specific event, regardless of any schedule changes. Readers often mistake the original September 27 date as the hard cutoff instead of the actual race completion.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%