Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Implied probability 1%−5
24-hour volume$5
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves3 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −5 points at 22:12 UTC, after SI Feed: Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Gives Shocking Reason for Season-Long Slump — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:59 UTC | 6% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits at least 50 home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. It resolves to No if he fails to reach that total within those specific games. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the postseason or a different year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%