Hinojosa, 3+ pts
Implied probability 14%+1
24-hour volume$7
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by a margin of at least three percentage points. It resolves to No if the Democratic candidate loses or wins by less than that margin. Readers often mistake the required margin for a simple win, ignoring the specific three-point threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%