Graham, 5+ pts
Implied probability 42%−1
24-hour volume$121
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 12 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 44% |
| 12 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 42% |
| 11 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 46% |
| 10 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 44% |
| 10 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 52% |
| 10 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 47% |
| 10 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 19:03 UTC | 41% |
| 9 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 41% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 44% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 49% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Oct, 04:31 UTC | 50% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 49% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 47% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 48% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by a margin of at least 5 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican candidate wins by less than 5 percentage points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any Republican victory counts rather than specifically a win of 5 points or more.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 58%