Acton, 3+ pts
Implied probability 100%+31
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$64k
Liquidity$64k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 00:36 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 71% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by a margin of at least three percentage points. It resolves to No if the Democratic candidate loses or wins by less than that margin. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Amy Acton for the actual resolution criteria.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%