Rogers, 5+ pts
Implied probability 8%−1
24-hour volume$500
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 8% |
| 6 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election by a margin of at least five percentage points. It resolves to No if the winner loses by less than that margin or if the Democratic Party wins. Readers often mistake the required margin for a simple win, ignoring that the victory must be decisive enough to meet the five-point threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%