Rogers, 3+ pts
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 20:00 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election by a margin of at least three percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than three points or loses the race entirely. Readers often mistake the endorsement mentioned in the linked story for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%