Hinson, 2+ pts
Implied probability 54%+9
24-hour volume$123
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Republicans win the 2026 Iowa Senate race by a margin of at least two percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than that margin or lose the election. Readers often mistake the source of truth, which is the official certified election results rather than early polls or news reports.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 46%