Rodriguez, 9+ pts
The market favoured No at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 14%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 9 Nov, 23:39 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win Florida’s 27th District seat in the 2026 House election with a margin of at least 9 percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than that margin or lose the race. Readers often mistake the winner of the popular vote for the official result, but the resolution depends strictly on the certified final margin reported by the state.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%