Dalton, 4+ pts
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 20:01 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins Florida's 7th District race by a margin of at least 4 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic victory margin is less than 4 percentage points or if they lose the election. Readers often mistake the linked story about Ryan Elijah for the actual result, but the market resolves based on the final certified election results in that specific district.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%