Before Jan 1, 2030
Why it moved: −7 points at 00:28 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Mamdani, Irish PM play bingo, ‘split the G’ in New York — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 40% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani stops serving as Mayor of New York City before January 1, 2030. It resolves to No if he remains in office through that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a subway ride for an event that changes his mayoral status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 67%