Before 2027
Implied probability 9%−3
24-hour volume$741
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 03:59 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Oct, 01:19 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 16:01 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Apple announces a MacBook with a built-in cellular modem before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the October 13 event in the linked story as the relevant deadline, but only announcements made before the end of 2026 count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%