ChatGPT
Implied probability 10%−1
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$2.5M
Liquidity$2.5M
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 04:17 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 03:00 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the top-ranked large language model position on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if OpenAI does not hold that rank on that date. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the announcement date of new features.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%