Gemini
Why it moved: +24 points at 21:08 UTC, after Hacker News: Gemini 4 Argon (High): Intelligence, Performance and Price Analysis — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 03:00 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google holds the top-ranked large language model position on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if Google does not hold that rank on that date. Readers often mistake the announcement of a new model for the final ranking determination.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 67%