Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave office or actually leaves as Chancellor of Germany before October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for a resolution event, but only an official announcement or actual departure counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%