Friedrich Merz
Implied probability 9%
24-hour volume$14
Total volume$91k
Liquidity$91k
Resolves2 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave the role of Chancellor of Germany or actually leaves that position before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the resignation of other officials, such as Labour Minister Bärbel Bas, for a change in the Chancellor's status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%