Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Implied probability 55%+1
24-hour volume$204
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 54% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4%. The margin must be strictly less than 100%, meaning she cannot win by exactly 100% of the vote. Readers often mistake the lower bound, thinking the margin must be greater than 4% rather than greater than or equal to 4%.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 55%
- No 45%