Morgan Stanley
Implied probability 11%−1
24-hour volume$43
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 07:36 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Morgan Stanley acts as a lead underwriter for Kraken's US initial public offering before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the email leak mentioned in the linked story for the triggering event, but only the official underwriting role matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%