Before his term ends
Implied probability 20%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is held liable for civil damages in any court related to the January 6, 2021 Capitol Attack before Jan 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly think the linked story about a deposition order directly determines the outcome, but only a final liability judgment counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%