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Why it moved: +7 points at 18:56 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: After Israel’s election: What’s next? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 18:01 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if exactly one Israeli Knesset election takes place between the next scheduled vote and either the formation of a new government or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on the total count of elections held within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than an event-triggered cutoff based on government formation.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 43%
- No 57%