Yes
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran’s score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index reaches at least 6.00 in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report. It resolves to No if the score falls below that threshold or the report is not published. Readers often mistake the publication date of the report for the deadline, but the resolution depends solely on the specific score listed in that final document.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%