Before October
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$748
Total volume$3.5M
Liquidity$3.5M
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Apple releases the iPhone 18 to the public before October 1, 2026. It resolves to No if that release does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution event, but only an official public release counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%