None of these
Why it moved: +4 points at 09:59 UTC, after NPR Politics: White House warns Trump probes could be criminal. Rep. Robert Garcia won't back down — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 12 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 6% |
| 11 Nov, 09:46 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if no named official is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives between now and January 1, 2028. It resolves to No if at least one such impeachment occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the current presidential term rather than the fixed date of January 1, 2028.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%