Isaias
Why it moved: +6 points at 09:24 UTC, after NOAA NHC Atlantic: Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Isaias becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if it does not meet this criteria within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the formation of a tropical storm for the resolution condition, but the system requires the storm to reach hurricane status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%