Gonzalo
Implied probability 1%−22
24-hour volume$13
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Why it moved: −22 points at 03:08 UTC, after NOAA NHC Atlantic: Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 03:05 UTC | 46% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Gonzalo becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such hurricane forms during that period. Readers often mistake the formation of the tropical storm itself for the resolution condition, but only its intensification into a hurricane counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%