Before Dec 31, 2026
Implied probability 62%+7
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 59% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 65% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a named storm called Isaias makes landfall or intersects Alabama between now and December 31, 2026, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph reported in consecutive National Hurricane Center advisories. The two advisories must be issued no more than 12 hours apart and include latitude and longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 62%
- No 38%