Category 3 or above
Implied probability 58%+3
24-hour volume$22k
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 43% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 39% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 45% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 65% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 52% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 50% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 49% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 51% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 54% |
| 7 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 67% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 72% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 69% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 70% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 69% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 72% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 73% |
| 6 Oct, 15:10 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tropical Storm Isaias attains maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. It resolves to No if it fails to reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the storm's category for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 58%
- No 42%