Before 2029
Implied probability 19%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$124k
Liquidity$124k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the allowable number of H-1B visas increases after the current issuance period and before January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if that cap remains unchanged during this window. Readers often mistake the linked story about senior citizens' accounts for the relevant policy change, but only visa caps count toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%