Before January 21, 2029
Implied probability 24%−1
24-hour volume$642
Total volume$2.9M
Liquidity$2.9M
Resolves21 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 02:30 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 17% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 21% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 21% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 16:51 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Sept, 15:35 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Sept, 14:46 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 03:30 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 09:06 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States acquires any part of Greenland before January 21, 2029. It resolves to No if that event does not happen by the deadline. Readers often mistake the signing of a security deal for an acquisition, but only actual ownership counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 76%