At least 250 billion
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 16 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if government spending drops by at least $250 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 in any single quarter through the end of 2028. The outcome is No if this specific drop never occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the end of 2028, or they look at total annual deficits instead of quarterly spending levels.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%