At least 2 trillion
Implied probability 3%−2
24-hour volume$117
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if government spending drops by at least 2 trillion dollars between Q4 2024 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date for January 1, 2025, but the period begins in Q4 2024.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%