Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6%
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$44k
Liquidity$44k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 05:10 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 42% |
| 3 Nov, 02:00 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race by a margin between 4% and 6%. The outcome is No if his victory margin falls outside that range or if he loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for Election Day, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%