Amy Acton, 4-6%
Implied probability 1%−19
24-hour volume$968
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Why it moved: −37 points at 04:54 UTC, after Mother Jones: Amy Acton Defeats Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio Governor’s Contest — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 17:37 UTC | 20% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Amy Acton wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by a margin between 4% and 6%. It resolves to No if her victory margin falls outside that specific range. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution criteria, but only the final official election results determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%