Above $45M
The market favoured No at 81% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 3%
24-hour volume$15
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −16 points at 23:34 UTC, after Politico Congress: NRSC takes on $20M in loans — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 19% |
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%