Taiwan
The market favoured No at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −31 points at 15:38 UTC, after CBS News: Transcript: Alexander Yui, Taiwan's representative to the U.S., on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 27, 2026 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 14:52 UTC | 32% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if John Kennedy explicitly states that Taiwan is part of China during his appearance on Face the Nation originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistakenly believe any general discussion of US-Taiwan relations counts, but only Kennedy's specific statement on that broadcast matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%