China / Chinese
The market favoured Yes at 82% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 15%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −68 points at 17:38 UTC, after CBS News: Transcript: Sen. John Kennedy on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 27, 2026 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 27 Sept, 17:38 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 16:06 UTC | 83% |
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%