Before 2029
Why it moved: +4 points at 15:48 UTC, after Fortune: China and the U.S. agree to set up a new AI safety channel and vow to keep working on pledge to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Sept, 05:25 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a free trade agreement with China becomes law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or via a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President before January 20, 2029. The outcome depends strictly on the legal enactment of this specific agreement, not on news reports about trade volumes like coal purchases.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%