Marine Le Pen
Implied probability 76%−3
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves18 Apr 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 76% |
| 15 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 76% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 79% |
| 13 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 76% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen ranks first in the initial round of the next French presidential election based on official certified results. It resolves to No if she does not finish first in that specific round. Readers often mistake the final winner for the required outcome, but only leading after the first round counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 76%
- No 24%