250 or more
Why it moved: +19 points at 19:02 UTC, after The Hill: Florida's dengue outbreak reportedly largest US has seen in decades — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 77% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Florida reports at least 250 locally acquired dengue cases in 2026. It resolves to No if the total falls below that threshold. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it depends on current news rather than the full year's official count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%