Isaias
Why it moved: +15 points at 09:24 UTC, after NOAA NHC Atlantic: Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 80% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if a storm named Isaias becomes the first hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15 and December 1, 2026. The resolution depends on the storm reaching hurricane status, not just forming as a tropical storm. Readers often mistake the formation date for the resolution deadline, but the key is when it achieves hurricane classification within the specified timeframe.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 97%
- No 3%