Gonzalo
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 06:23 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 03:05 UTC | 31% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Gonzalo becomes the first Atlantic hurricane between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such storm occurs within that timeframe or if another storm reaches hurricane status first. Readers often mistake the formation of a tropical storm for the resolution condition, but Gonzalo must specifically be categorized as a hurricane.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%