Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: +4 points at 22:38 UTC, after Ars Technica: Most powerful obesity drug yet: People lost up to 25% of weight in trial — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the trial results in the linked story for an approval, but only a formal FDA decision counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%