Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 12%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 3 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nigel Farage steps down as Leader of Reform UK before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through that date. Readers often mistake news reports of him being questioned for an actual departure from the leadership position.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%