Stagflation
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$29k
Resolves13 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports an unemployment rate of at least 5% and a CPI-U 12-month percent change of at least 3.5% for December 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked August inflation headline as the deciding factor instead of the specific December 2026 data.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%