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Shrink / Theft

Implied probability 70%+7
24-hour volume$212
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves31 Mar 2027

Why it moved: +7 points at 03:20 UTC, after Times of India: Kroger to lay off thousands, its largest cut in 143 years: what the CEO told staff — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Shrink / Theft
0%50%100%70%12 Oct, 03:04 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now70%
13 Oct, 03:20 UTC70%
12 Oct, 03:04 UTC63%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if a Kroger representative mentions shrink or theft during the upcoming earnings call, including the question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if they do not mention these terms in that specific window. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any future statement counts rather than only what happens during this next scheduled call.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 70%
  • No 30%

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