Dividend
Implied probability 1%−58
24-hour volume$21k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$35k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Why it moved: −57 points at 22:24 UTC, after MarketWatch: Costco earnings beat expectations, thanks to tariff refunds — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 58% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Costco representative mentions a dividend during the upcoming earnings call or its question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if no such mention occurs within that specific event. Readers often mistake any general discussion of profits for an actual dividend announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%