Tariff
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −5 points at 15:16 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Carnival Raises Full-Year Outlook on Record Booking Demand — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 15:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 14:21 UTC | 11% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Carnival Corporation representative mentions tariffs during the upcoming earnings call or its question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if no one uses that word in those specific segments. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any general news report counts instead of only the official company representatives on the call.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%